How to Read a Hit Rate in 4 Steps: Jalen Brunson 19+ Points Example (Nov 13)

Learn how to read a player hit rate with a real example: Jalen Brunson has scored 19+ points in 11 of 11 Knicks games this season. Follow @darimarket for…

Learn how to read a player hit rate with a real example: Jalen Brunson has scored 19+ points in 11 of 11 Knicks games this season. Follow @darimarket for daily player research 🔔 Which step do you check first? Past results only, not a pick.

Transcript

Here is how to read a hit rate in four steps, using Jalen Brunson as the example. Step one, the line. The line is the bar, and in this example it is 19 or more points. Step two, the sample. Brunson has cleared 19 points in 11 of 11 Knicks games this season, so the sample is every game so far. Step three, the range. His lowest game in the run is 19 and his highest is 38, which tells you how close the bar sits to his floor. Step four, the context. Minutes, injuries and the opponent can change from night to night, so a hit rate is a description of past games and not a forecast. Which step do you check first? What the numbers say. DARIMARKET is a player prop research tool that tracks how often NBA, NFL, NHL and college football players clear their numbers, using box scores from ESPN. This video is research, not a pick, and it shows past results only. You must be 21 or older to use sports research sites. A hit rate counts how many games a player cleared a number out of the games he played, and it is most useful when you read it together with the lowest game, the highest game and who is available that night. Small samples can mislead, so check the full game log before you draw a conclusion. Follow for a new lesson every few days and tell us in the comments which stat you want explained next. Every number in this lesson comes from ESPN box scores for games already played this season, and nothing here is a forecast or a recommendation. If a player misses games, the denominator changes, so always check how many games the team has played against how many the player appeared in before you compare two hit rates. Think of three numbers together: the share of games cleared, the lowest game and the average. A player who clears a bar every game with a low game close to the bar has less cushion than one whose low game sits far above it. That difference is why we show the range and not only the count.