Broncos vs. Panthers Recap: Denver Rallies, Young and Waller Cash

The Broncos won 26-21 in Carolina after trailing in the third quarter. Denver jumped out 10-0 on a Wil Lutz field goal and a Bo Nix touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton, then Bryce Young hit Darren Waller for a 15-yard score that gave the Panthers a 14-13 lead early in the third. Denver answered with a Jonah Coleman 9-yard run and a 26-yard Nix strike to Pat Bryant to go up 26-14, and Carolina's late Tetairoa McMillan touchdown only cut the gap. Six DARIMARKET plays cashed on this game, and most of them came from the Carolina passing game.

What cashed

Broncos ML (-142 FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Denver had won eight of its last ten, Carolina four of its last ten, and the price sat at -142, about 59% implied.
• What happened: It took a fourth-quarter push. Denver scored 13 straight points in the fourth before Carolina's late touchdown and won by 5. The Broncos converted 6-10 on third down against Carolina's 3-10.
• Worth watching: Denver's third-down efficiency was the edge in a game the Panthers outgained them 353 to 312. That's a useful marker when the Broncos are short favorites.

ALT: Bryce Young 200+ passing yards (-244 DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Young had cleared 200 passing yards in six of seven games this season, averaging 274.4.
• What happened: Young completed 28 of 39 passes, threw for 276 yards and had 3 touchdowns, clearing the rung by 76.5.
• Worth watching: He landed right on his season average again. A low passing rung on a quarterback who throws 39 times is the kind of support a slip can lean on.

ALT: Darren Waller 25+ receiving yards (+137 DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Waller had cleared 25 yards in seven of his last ten. At +137 (42% implied) against about 64% from recent games, this was a plus-money long shot that we liked on price.
• What happened: Waller caught 8 of 10 targets for 90 yards and the go-ahead third-quarter touchdown, 65.5 yards past the line.
• Worth watching: Ten targets is lead-receiver volume. If his price stays at plus money for a low yardage rung, it stays worth a look.

John Metchie III 14+ receiving yards (-114 FanDuel): CASHED

• Our read: Metchie cleared 14 yards in eight of his last ten. At -114 (53% implied) we had him closer to 67%.
• What happened: Metchie caught both of his targets for 40 yards, with a long of 25, clearing by 26.5.

ALT: John Metchie III 2+ receptions (-142 DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Metchie also had 2 or more catches in eight of his last ten, and -142 implied 59% against about 69% from his recent games.
• What happened: He caught exactly 2 on 2 targets. It cashed right at the number, with no room to spare.
• Worth watching: Two targets is thin. His yards came on efficiency, so the receptions rung carries more risk than the yardage rung when his usage is this light.

ALT: Mitchell Evans 8+ receiving yards (-115 DraftKings): CASHED

• Our read: Evans had cleared 8 yards in six of seven games, averaging 18.1.
• What happened: He caught both targets for 20 yards, 12.5 over the line.
• Worth watching: Like Metchie, Evans needed only two catches. Low rungs on secondary tight ends work when the quarterback is throwing this often.

How the game played out

Carolina actually moved the ball better, with 257 passing yards and 96 rushing, and Chuba Hubbard ran 16 times for 79 yards. But the Panthers turned it over twice to Denver's once, and Young took 3 sacks. Bo Nix threw for 237 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Denver held the ball for 31:55.

Trends to watch

• Young threw 39 times in a one-score game. Carolina pass-catcher props stay live when the Panthers are underdogs.
• Waller led Carolina with 10 targets. McMillan had 6 and scored late.
• Jonah Coleman handled the Denver backfield with 17 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown, so his volume is worth tracking.

Stats are from the ESPN box score. See how a moneyline works and implied probability. More at /nfl.